Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Dollar for 32 rubles


Familiar for some reason, I ask questions about the increase in the dollar. Since I almost got rid of the dollar-denominated loans, and revenues in the Bucks, I fell uniformly for almost two years now and have reached a modest pieces per month, this growth is something I do not care. Paid in rubles and spending in rubles. Especially because 2rublya is 6% premium to the former price of 30 rubles, which does not allow the common man to twitch in the hope to earn much money in the currency translation.

Yesterday Judge staring channel, read the analyst. The overall conclusion - the present course is partially speculative, partly echoing current events in Europe and the U.S.. Speculative due to two factors: the need for tax dollars cash and other payments to the end of the quarter. The second reason is subjective, and due to the increased competitiveness of Russian goods. Although nafig is the absence of WTO membership, I was not very clear - it is clear that the Europe-USA will play back and the winter rate is restored to the previous limits, so that nothing of substance to push out to the west does not work.

On the other hand, amid all the problems with Greece, Italy, Spain, Europe became agitated. Plus, negative information from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is not very much wants to save the U.S. economy by launching the game with a short-term liabilities. In fact the U.S. is now plugs the gap with short-term loans, since long-term needs political solutions, which can not be taken. That patch up the economy of means available.

Consequence - the uncertainty of the overall situation in the stock market was worried. The stock of many companies Popper down even when the positive dynamics of the companies. The stock market in Russia is dependent on global and fell yesterday as much as 7%. This is - time to buy. You can buy the shares only for bucks, which is not. Who would want to buy a depreciating stock, he must first buy dollars. Demand exceeded supply in Bucks. In general, such as the way it is.

Once the market gets positive statistics - all ustakanilos that have often been. It remains to understand how will this positive stats. Europe in recent years simply zhzhot. In addition to problems with Greece, which can not reach the default, Switzerland, yesterday signed an agreement with Germany to disclose the secrets of the owners of the contributions that will allow Germany to return to the country 150mlrd. CHF and thereby increase tax revenues by 10 - 15mlrd.

For those who like to masturbate in China - Chinese stocks on deposit at banks fell last month to 66mlrd. bucks - so much money the Chinese withdrew from their accounts to an unknown destination. The only explanation from the experts - tightening lending rules in China. Business goes on private loans. But, IMHO, the history of the dark. 66 billion. dollars in cash - a lot. This is not bonds, not stocks. It's a bitch, cash.

And in fact this whole question of what the crisis, most likely, will not be. There will be turbulence. Many times. Well, and Russia have to pray that oil does not fall below 90 dollars a barrel, because it is so laid out a budget for next year. And yesterday the price of oil has fallen to 85. And it is not good. For you and me.

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